Carrying a first-round label in the NFL is quite the double-edged sword.
It conveys cachet, fiscal reward – at least initially – and opportunity, few front offices with the stomach to see a Round 1 investment crater or even flatline. Yet there’s also a microscopic level of football scrutiny that comes with being an early draft pick and certainly a requisite amount of pressure to perform and, increasingly so, to produce near-instant dividends – especially as the antacid provided by a growing salary cap means some executives are growing more willing to cut the cord well before a rookie deal expires.
For those entering a pivotal point in their careers, whether with their original teams or new ones, Week 2 of the preseason could be among the dwindling chances to prove you're worthy of discussing another contract, securing a fifth-year option, cementing a role and/or even retaining a roster spot in a league notorious for ruthlessly churning on-field personnel.
Giants QB Daniel Jones is clearly among those entering a make-or-break year – and coming off a knee injury that prematurely ended his 2023 campaign. His physical recovery has reached a point where he'll likely play Saturday when his team faces Houston.
"He's made strides every day," NYG coach Brian Daboll said of Jones this week. "There's new things, new pieces, new tight ends, new receiver. So, that's always a work in progress.
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"Him coming back from the injury, I think he's done a fantastic job. He's continuing to grow and he's done well here these last couple weeks."
But heading into this weekend and the 2024 season, Jones is among 24 former first-rounders who could find their professional football lives in increasingly tenuous situations:
A ballyhooed quintet at the time, only the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence – newly enriched with a record-tying five-year contract worth up to $275 million – remains with his original team after three seasons. In fact, Lawrence is now backed up by Duval County native Mac Jones, traded to the Jags during the offseason after seeing his fortunes with the Patriots steadily decline following a Pro Bowl rookie campaign that included a trip to the playoffs. Though it’s not in the plans for Lawrence to get beaten up like he did in 2023, if that recurs, Jones might get a fresh audition to impress the league – in what should be more favorable offensive circumstances.
Elsewhere, Zach Wilson, cast off by the New York Jets after a highly disappointing tenure, finds himself looking out at what’s tantamount to a clean, freshly fallen snowscape with the Denver Broncos – availing himself nicely in his preseason debut with the club (10-for-13, 117 yards) last Sunday. His competition to curry HC Sean Payton’s favor presently consists of rookie Bo Nix and journeyman Jarrett Stidham. Meanwhile, if QB Dak Prescott’s contract situation with the Dallas Cowboys isn’t rectified by the end of this season, perhaps the only beneficiary in North Texas would be backup QB Trey Lance, who’s still hoping to justify the No. 3 overall pick (and more) the San Francisco 49ers invested in him three years ago before trading him.
Finally, after his fateful ouster from the Chicago Bears – despite his obvious talent and estimable potential – Justin Fields is starting fresh with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The question is, how long – if ever – will it be before he’s starting for the Pittsburgh Steelers given the presence of veteran Russell Wilson? Though less experienced and, naturally, more error-prone, there’s no question Fields is the more dynamic player at this point.
Drafted on the same night that Tennessee traded WR A.J. Brown in 2022, Burks has hardly been able to fill his predecessor’s void. He has 49 career receptions, finding the end zone once. Maybe Burks can take advantage of this summer’s opportunity with veteran DeAndre Hopkins dealing with a knee injury. But the Titans also signed WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, who knows HC Brian Callahan’s offense from their time together in Cincinnati – meaning Burks is probably ultimately battling Nick Westbrook-Ikhine for the WR4 role in what seems like a crucial fork in the road.
Honestly, he probably needs a fresh start. The final first-round selection of the 2022 draft, Cine suffered a broken leg his rookie year that limited him to three games, and he only appeared in seven last season. He’s earned just 10 defensive snaps in his NFL career and, buried on the depth chart as a third-teamer, seems relegated to more special teams duties in the Twin Cities … provided he continues to live in Minnesota.
This guy? Running out chances? Darnold’s case is unique, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft (by the Jets) now with his fourth club entering Year 7. Yet with former NFL quarterback Kevin O’Connell coaching him, All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson among his weapons and an opportunity to play that should be even less restricted given rookie J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending knee surgery, this might be Darnold’s last legitimate shot at proving he’s a viable QB1 in the league – whether for the Vikes or elsewhere, this arguably a scenario similar to the one Baker Mayfield leveraged into a sizable extension with the Bucs last season.
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“Sam’s had a really good camp, and my confidence level in Sam is very, very high at this point,” O’Connell said Tuesday. “I’m looking forward to seeing him continue his progression.”
Since being picked in 2021, he’s played a lot (36 starts, 269 tackles) but had little notable impact for what’s generally been a poor defense. However with his option declined and Washington’s new regime bringing in free agent LBs Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu and Dante Fowler Jr., who are all listed as starters, seems like the writing is on the wall for Davis.
Heading into his third season, he has yet to distinguish himself (8 career starts) and currently doesn’t seem ticketed for much more than dime and special teams duties until circumstances evolve or his play improves.
Similar to Cine, he probably needs a change of scenery … and seems likely to get one soon. A first-round pick in 2021, his career has been short-circuited by multiple injuries, which have limited Farley to two starts. He didn’t play at all in 2023, when Farley’s house exploded, killing his father. Listed as a third-teamer, Farley will be a free agent in 2025 … it not sooner.
A Pack defense loaded with first-round talent has seemingly been less than the sum of its parts for years. Perhaps it clicks in 2024 with new coordinator Jeff Hafley shifting the scheme and priorities while redeploying some of those assets. Regardless, it’s a fresh chance for CB Eric Stokes, a 2021 draftee whose fifth-year option has already been declined, LB Quay Walker and DL Devonte Wyatt (both picked in 2022) to redeem themselves. However Stokes has missed most of the past two seasons with injuries, while Wyatt has yet to nail down a starting job.
Interestingly, his option for 2025 was declined even though he’s never missed a game and has averaged nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage though his first three seasons. However that production has steadily declined since Harris’ rookie year – 1,667 yards on a league-high 381 touches in 2022 but down to 1,205 yards last season, when sidekick Jaylen Warren’s role continued to expand. But given the Steelers renounced extended contractual control of Harris at a point when they’re trying to re-establish the smash-mouth elements of the offense, strong suggestion that their resources in 2025 – when another quarterback decision must be rendered – are likely to be redirected from Harris’ bank account unless he has a breakthrough.
His versatility was seen as an asset coming out of Michigan in 2022, but Hill has yet to establish himself as a safety or nickel and is currently listed as a second-team corner behind former Wolverines teammate DJ Turner II, who was drafted a year later.
Amazingly, both Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson were top 10 picks in 2020 – no corner has ever been picked higher than Okudah was at No. 3 overall (by the Detroit Lions). Yet both have already become NFL journeymen, Houston the third stop for each. They're fortunate to play a position that’s always in demand and requires elite athletes. Yet neither is guaranteed to make the Texans’ 53-man roster or hardly a lock to continue knocking around the league hoping their draft pedigree gets them additional tryouts.
"We've done everything possible to screw this kid up since he's been here,” owner John Mara pointedly said two years ago. Jones then proceeded to have what seemed to be a breakout 2022 campaign under Daboll – one that earned him a four-year, $160 million extension – before a poor offensive line and torn ACL led to a serious retrograde last season for a passer infamous as a turnover machine. Jones is the rare player to merit a mention here despite already landing a second contract. But if it wasn’t exactly explicit beforehand with the moves they made in free agency and the draft, the Giants’ appearance on the maiden voyage of the offseason version of “Hard Knocks” illustrated in stark terms – GM Joe Schoen openly pondering the possibility of picking a QB this year – that 2024 is all about assessing Jones’ long-term viability … and likely letting him go in 2025 if he can’t get back on track.
Jones isn’t the only former first-rounder whom the G-Men will be reassessing. Neal, the seventh overall pick just two years ago, appears relegated to a swing tackle role after the team signed OT Jermaine Eluemunor to a two-year deal that likely lands him in the starting role on the right side. “I’m not owed anything, and I can’t feel like I deserve anything,” Neal said Sunday after coming off the PUP list following offseason ankle surgery. “All I want is what I work for.” Appears he has plenty to do after uninspired play 20 games into his career, especially if he has any hope an already skeptical Schoen picks up his option next spring.
DE Payton Turner, the 28th overall pick in 2021, has been limited to 15 games (zero starts) and three sacks during his first three seasons – injuries and his lack of production unsurprisingly causing the club to decline his option for 2025 given he projects as little more than a rotational player in 2024. On the other side of the ball, 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning seemingly inherits the starting right tackle job with sidelined Ryan Ramczyk’s season already over. However injuries and ineffectiveness have limited Penning to six professional starts, and the team has already drafted a replacement, Taliese Fuaga this spring, as its new left tackle of the present and future. Penning needs to take a quantum leap if the Saints are to keep him beyond the 2025 season … if he even lasts that long.
A head-scratching Round 1 choice two years ago coming out of Tennessee-Chattanooga, he’s been adequate at best through 27 career starts. Problem is, a knee injury suffered late last season threatens to cost Strange a hefty chunk of the 2024 campaign, when he’ll have to earn his job back and hope to perform well enough for the team to activate his option for 2026.
He hasn’t missed a game since being the Bucs’ first pick following their Super Bowl 55 win, starting 34 times. But the impact hasn’t really been there, Tryon-Shoyinka averaging fewer than five sacks and 21 pressures per season. His option declined, he’s scheduled to be a free agent next year and faces increased competition for snaps from more recently drafted OLBs like Yaya Diaby and Chris Braswell.
One of the team's two first-round picks over the past six drafts, Wills is entering his option year, missed the second half of the 2023 season with a knee injury and remains on the PUP list. Durability, penalties and his overall performance have been issues. And while young blind side tackles don't grow on trees, it seems – at least for now – an eight-figure salary investment would get the Browns a better one next year.
***Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.
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