After 15 years of being exceptional, it’s hard to even process what it will look like when the Alabama program that Nick Saban built becomes a beatable, run-of-the-mill outfit. In fact, it’s so unfathomable that even when Saban’s actions and words are screaming that there's a problem, we are all conditioned to believe that it’s part of some three-dimensional chess game he’s fully in control of. 

But if you truly paid attention this preseason, Saban did not present himself like a coach who was fully confident in his team. At one point, he went on a radio show and said he "didn’t know" if Alabama was talented enough to win a championship. He wouldn’t name a starting quarterback or even put out a depth chart, saying it would be a distraction in the locker room. If you actually believed that Nick Saban of all people was afraid to offend players because of a hard personnel choice, you’re probably the person who thinks an e-mail from a Nigerian prince is your ticket to an early retirement.

Sometimes, the simplest explanation is the right one. Alabama had real problems, and Saban knew it. But the warnings never registered, at least not until Texas came into Tuscaloosa and laid a 34-24 beatdown on a program that looked like a shell of what it once was. 

What this game revealed about Alabama is shockingly simple: Right now, the Crimson Tide isn't very good on offense or defense. Other than that, things are just great. 

Texas might turn out to be the real deal that we’ll be watching in the College Football Playoff come Jan. 1. But Alabama averaged 3.1 yards per rush, got quarterback play from Jalen Milroe that was both thrilling and messy (14-for-27, 255 yards, two TDs and two INTs) and had no hope of stopping a Texas offense that piled up 454 yards.

Here at the Misery Index, we have suspected the last couple years that Bryce Young’s brilliance covered up a multitude of football sins. Now, without the veneer of elite quarterback play, we know the drop-off at Alabama is real.

The Crimson Tide has a pretty favorable schedule overall, but is this team really going to run the table and get into the College Football Playoff conversation? It’s hard to see that path unless there’s a dramatic shift in the level of play on both sides of the ball. 

And if this is Saban’s worst team of the era, how does he, at age 71, get the program back in a position to compete with Georgia and other similarly talented teams? 

We are so used to waving off any sign of trouble at Alabama under the guise of Saban knowing how to fix any problem. But if this turns into a three-loss season or something like that − a real possibility based on how the Tide looked Saturday − we may finally be talking about the end of an era. 

That’s why Alabama, after six national titles under Saban, is No. 1 in the Misery Index, a weekly measurement of which fan bases are feeling the most angst about the state of their favorite program. 

Four more in misery

Texas A&M: The money pit that is Aggie football continues to offer up a return on investment similar to all those NFTs you bought during the pandemic. At the time, you thought it was a great idea to spend thousands of dollars on a digital image of an ape wearing a funny hat. Next thing you know, it doesn't matter that you forgot the password to your crypto wallet because it isn’t even worth the cell phone data you’d use trying to find it. Wake us up when Jimbo Fisher and the 10-year, $95 million contract extension he signed in 2022 actually do something that forces the rest of college football to take Texas A&M and its boosters seriously rather than mock them for continuing to invest incredible resources in a program that seems to be going nowhere. That includes all the NIL money that was spent on recruits and hiring Bobby Petrino to be offensive coordinator only to lose to Miami, 48-33. If there’s a bright side for A&M, it appears Conner Weigman is going to be a pretty good quarterback. There are some good individual pieces around him, too. But when the whole is still this much less than the sum of its parts − especially in Year 6 of the Fisher era − it becomes difficult to see how this becomes a championship program under the current regime. 

Houston: When you factor in the hype, the name recognition and the unbridled ambition of the school to be good at football, Dana Holgorsen may go down as one of the most disappointing hires of the decade. Saturday's 43-41 double overtime loss at Rice − Rice! − drops Holgorsen’s overall record at Houston to 28-21. There has been one strong season in there when the Cougars went 12-2 in 2021 (albeit against a marshmallow soft schedule), but otherwise it’s been more mediocre than anyone should be allowed to be at Houston. And Holgorsen wasn't hired to be mediocre. In fact, he was hired off a long, successful run at West Virginia with the idea that Houston would be primed to make the move into a power conference. Instead, based on the Cougars’ two games this season, which also includes a three-point win over UTSA, this team would probably fit better in its old home of Conference USA. But good luck in the Big 12, I guess.

Nebraska: Any quarterback that enters the transfer portal immediately gets 20 percent better than they were at their previous school. That’s probably why there’s so many of them in there every year − simply moving from one school to another shifts the narrative from what you were to what you could be with a fresh start and a different system. But in the case of Jeff Sims, who struggled at Georgia Tech last year, Nebraska needed him to be 200 percent better and he kind of turned out to be the same guy. That’s not on Sims. That’s on Matt Rhule, who is a proven, excellent college coach but might have miscalculated what the Huskers needed to be competitive this season. The Huskers’ 36-14 loss at Colorado badly exposed their lack of offensive skill, and the quarterback position is by no means the only problem. But it is a big problem, and Sims’ 9-for-15 passing performance for 106 yards and one interception means that it’s going to be another very long, very depressing season if he’s the best option they have. 

Virginia: The presidential election of 1808 turned when Thomas Jefferson gave his endorsement to his Secretary of State James Madison rather than his vice president George Clinton. And this is how Jimmy returns the favor? If Jefferson had been alive long enough to see the development of college football into a billion-dollar industry, he probably would have hated the entire idea of it. But he almost certainly wouldn’t have approved of the school he founded losing to an in-state rival that was playing in the FCS two years ago. Yet we can’t be too surprised that the Cavaliers lost to James Madison, 36-35, because the unfortunate reality for Virginia is that the Dukes have a better program. Regardless of level, they know who they are and they know how to win. And in their first meeting in 40 years, that winning DNA paid off with James Madison scoring a go-ahead touchdown with 55 seconds remaining. Tony Elliott, the former Clemson offensive coordinator, is now 3-9 as a head coach. 

Miserable but not miserable enough

Illinois: In truth, the Illini are lucky not to be 0-2. After needing a field goal with five seconds left to beat Toledo in the opener, Illinois went to Kansas and gave up 539 yards in a 34-23 loss Friday night that really wasn’t as close as the score. A year ago, Illinois had the No. 3 total defense in college football allowing just 274 yards and the top scoring defense at 12.8 points per game. But even if Illinois couldn’t get an equivalent replacement for coordinator Ryan Walters, who left for the head coaching job at Purdue, that’s a pretty dramatic drop-off in one season to trail Kansas 34-7 late in the third quarter.

North Carolina: Mack Brown would have you believe that the Tar Heels’ struggles against Appalachian State the last two years are a product of some kind of in-state rivalry mental pressure hokum that makes their kids play really well and his kids play below their capability. After a 40-34 double overtime victory − the second straight year North Carolina has eked out a win in a wild, down-to-the-wire game − Brown said he was very happy the Mountaineers are off the schedule going forward while acknowledging that it's good for the state to play these kinds of games. "I've had enough," he said. Appalachian State is a good Sun Belt program, to be sure. But if you’re sweating that game to such a degree, you’re not a College Football Playoff contender. And if Brown isn’t getting the Tar Heels to compete on that level, why is he still doing this? 

Virginia Tech: The weather was so bad in Blacksburg that the Hokies’ game against Purdue stopped toward the end of the first quarter and didn’t get going again for nearly six hours. That is simply a miserable experience for everyone involved including players, coaches, fans, administrators and anyone else whose Saturday revolved around that game. But once it continued, it was far worse for Virginia Tech, which fell behind 17-0, stormed back to tie the game before halftime, then gave up the decisive touchdown halfway through the fourth quarter in a 24-17 loss. Extenuating circumstances aside, the lack of offensive talent at Virginia Tech is astounding. At this point, the outcome of the 2023 season should be on the back burner. Brent Pry, in his second year as head coach, needs to find some players capable of delivering more than 286 offensive yards against Purdue. 

Baylor: Congrats to the Bears for making the Misery Index in consecutive weeks to start the season. It’s a real accomplishment, and one that took a lot of hard work to lose a 13-3 lead at home in such a dramatic fashion against Utah. After playing a terrific defensive game, Baylor wore out completely in the heat and allowed a 15-play, 88-yard drive that tied it up with 1:59 remaining. It was an unfortunate turn of events for Baylor, but not disastrous. The disaster, however, came three plays later when quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw an interception on third-and-16. If Baylor merely goes three-and-out and punts, it’s probably overtime at worst. Instead, Utah got the ball back at the Baylor 29-yard line and got the winning touchdown with 17 seconds left. Now 0-2, it gets no easier for Baylor with Texas coming to Waco and a trip to UCF before the end of the month.